Staff profiles

David RhoadesEmeritus Scientist

Rhoades David 1144

Pronouns

he/him

Department

Earthquake Physics and Statistics

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Qualifications

  • PhD, Mathematics
  • BSc Hons, Mathematics
  • BSc, Mathematics
  • MSc, Mathematics

Areas of expertise

  • Geophysics: Earthquake Forecasting Methodologies
  • Geophysics: Applications of statistics
  • Geophysics: Seismic hazard models
  • Geophysics: Earthquake hazard modelling
  • Geophysics: Probabilist hazard and risk
  • Geophysics: Long-range earthquake forecasting

Major Publications

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  • Hainzl, S.; Christophersen, A.; Rhoades, D.A.; Harte, D.S. 2016. Statistical estimation of the duration of aftershock sequences, Geophysical Journal International 205(2): p. 1180-1189. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggw075. p. 1180-1189
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Liukis, M.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2016. Retrospective tests of hybrid operational earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury, Geophysical Journal International 204(1): p. 440-456. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggv447. p. 440-456
  • Zhao, J.X.; Zhou, S.; Gao, P.; Long, T.; Zhang, Y.; Thio, H.K.; Lu, M.; Rhoades, D.A. 2015. An earthquake classification scheme adapted for Japan determined by the goodness of fit for ground-motion prediction equations, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105(5): p. 2750-2763. DOI: 10.1785/0120150013. p. 2750-2763
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2015. Multiplicative earthquake likelihood models based on fault and earthquake data, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105(6): p. 2955-2968. DOI: 10.1785/0120150080. p. 2955-2968
  • Zhao, J.G.; Hu, J.; Jiang, F.; Zhou, J.; Zhang, Y.; An, X.; Lu, M.; Rhoades, D.A. 2015. Nonlinear site models derived from 1D analysis for ground-motion prediction equations using site class as the site parameter, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105(4): p. 2010-2022. DOI: 10.1785/0120150019. p. 2010-2022
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A.; Zechar, J.D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Werner, M.J.; Jordan, T.H. 2014. Regional earthquake likelihood models II : information gains of multiplicative hybrids, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 104(6): p. 3072-3083. DOI: 10.1785/0120140035. p. 3072-3083
  • Schneider, M.; Clements, R.; Rhoades, D.A.; Schorlemmer, D. 2014. Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California, Geophysical Journal International 198(3): p. 1307-1318. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggu178. p. 1307-1318
  • Gerstenberger, M.C.; McVerry, G.H.; Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W. 2014. Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquake Spectra 30(1): p. 17-29. DOI: 10.1193/021913EQS037M. p. 17-29
  • Massey, C.I.; McSaveney, M.J.; Taig, T.; Richards, L.; Litchfield, N.J.; Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H.; Lukovic, B.; Heron, D.W.; Ries, W.; Van Dissen, R.J. 2014. Determining rockfall risk in Christchurch using rockfalls triggered by the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, Earthquake Spectra 30(1): p. 155-181. DOI: 10.1193/021413EQS026M. p. 155-181
  • Steacy, S.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Williams, C.A.; Rhoades, D.A.; Christophersen, A. 2014. A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting aftershock rates, Geophysical Journal International 196(2): p. 918-923. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggt404. p. 918-923
  • Rhoades, D.A. 2013. Mixture models for improved earthquake forecasting with short-to-medium time horizons, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103(4): p. 2203-2215. DOI: 10.1785/0120120233. p. 2203-2215
  • Zechar, D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Werner, M.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; Jordan, T.H. 2013. Regional earthquake likelihood models I : first-order results, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103(2A): p. 787-798. DOI: 10.1785/0120120186. p. 787-798
  • Van Dissen, R.J.; Rhoades, D.A.; Little, T.; Litchfield, N.J.; Carne, R.; Villamor, P. 2013. Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ohariu faults, New Zealand, New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 56(2): p. 53-67. DOI: 10.1080/00288306.2012.756042. p. 53-67
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W. 2012. An earthquake likelihood model based on proximity to mapped faults and catalogued earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 102(4): p. 1583-1599. DOI: 10.1785/0120110326. p. 1583-1599
  • Worden, C.B.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; Wald, D.J. 2012. Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parameters and modified mercalli intensity in California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 102(1): p. 204-221. DOI: 10.1785/0120110156. p. 204-221
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Somerville, P.G.; de Oliveira, F.D.; Thio, H.K. 2012. Effect of tectonic setting on the fit and performance of a long-range earthquake forecasting model, Research in Geophysics 2(1): p. 13-23. DOI: 10.4081/rg.2012.e3. p. 13-23
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Van Dissen, R.J.; Langridge, R.M.; Little, T.A.; Ninis, D.; Smith, E.G.C.; Robinson, R. 2011. Re-evaluation of conditional probability of rupture of the Wellington-Hutt Valley segment of the Wellington Fault, Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 44(2): p. 77-86. DOI: 10.5459/bnzsee.44.2.77-86. p. 77-86
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Christophersen, A.; Zechar, J.D.; Imoto, M. 2011. Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models, Acta Geophysica 59(4): p. 728-747. DOI: 10.2478/s11600-011-0013-5. p. 728-747
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Robinson, R.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2011. Long-range predictability in physics-based synthetic earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International 185(2): p. 1037-1048. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04993.x. p. 1037-1048
  • Imoto, M.; Rhoades, D.A.; Fujiwara, H.; Yamamoto, N. 2011. Conventional N-, L-, and R-tests of earthquake forecasting models without simulated catalogs, Earth, Planets and Space 63(3): p. 275-287. DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.007. p. 275-287
  • Rhoades, D.A. 2011. Application of a long-range forecasting model to earthquakes in the Japan mainland testing region, Earth, Planets and Space 63(3): p. 197-206. DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.002. p. 197-206
  • Rhoades, D.A. 2010. Lessons and questions from thirty years of testing the precursory swarm hypothesis, Pure and Applied Geophysics 167(6/7): p. 629-644. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0071-7. p. 629-644
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Papadimitriou, E.E.; Karakostas, V.G.; Console, R.; Murru, M. 2010. Correlation of static stress changes and earthquake occurrence in the North Aegean region, Pure and Applied Geophysics 167(8/9): p. 1049-1066. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0092-2. p. 1049-1066
  • Zechar, J.D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A. 2010. Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(3): p. 1184-1195. DOI: 10.1785/0120090192. p. 1184-1195
  • Imoto, M.; Rhoades, D.A. 2010. Seismicity models of moderate earthquakes in Kanto, Japan utilizing multiple predictive parameters, Pure and Applied Geophysics 167(6/7): p. 831-843. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0066-4. p. 831-843
  • Rhoades, D.A. 2009. Long-range earthquake forecasting allowing for aftershocks, Geophysical Journal International 178(1): p. 244-256. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04083.x. p. 244-256
  • Zhao, J.X.; Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H.; Somerville, P.G. 2009. Inhibition of very strong ground motion in response spectral attenuation models and effects of site class and tectonic category, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99(3): p. 1487-1501. DOI: 10.1785/0120080279. p. 1487-1501
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. 2009. Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99(2A): p. 636-646. DOI: 10.1785/0120080063. p. 636-646
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Zhao, J.X.; McVerry, G.H. 2008. A simple test for inhibition of very strong shaking in ground-motion models, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98(1): p. 448-453. DOI: 10.1785/0120070133. p. 448-453
  • Rhoades, D.A. 2007. Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California, Seismological Research Letters 78(1): p. 110-115. p. 110-115
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. 2006. The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan, Tectonophysics 417(1/2): p. 119-130. DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.05.051. p. 119-130
  • Papadimitriou, E.E.; Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A.; Karakostas, V.G.; Console, R.; Murru, M.R. 2006. Long-term seismogenesis in Greece : comparison of the evolving stress field and precursory scale increase approaches, Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth 111: B05318. DOI: 10.1029/2005JB003805. B05318
  • Console, R.; Rhoades, D.A.; Murru, M.; Evison, F.F.; Papadimitriou, E.E.; Karakostas, V.G. 2006. Comparative performance of time-variant, long-range and short-range forecasting models on the earthquake catalogue of Greece, Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth 111(B9): B09304. DOI: 10.1029/2005JB004113. B09304
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. 2005. Test of the EEPAS forecasting model on the Japan earthquake catalogue, Pure and Applied Geophysics 162(6/7): p. 1271-1290. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 3364 p. 1271-1290
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F. 2004. Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale, Pure and Applied Geophysics 161(1): p. 47-72. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 2889 p. 47-72
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2004. Long-term seismogenesis and self-organized criticality, Earth, Planets and Space 56(8): p. 749-760. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 3168 p. 749-760
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2004. Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis, Pure and Applied Geophysics 161(1): p. 21-45. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-003-2435-8. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 2890 p. 21-45
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2002. Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and Northern Mexico, Annals of Geophysics 45(3/4): p. 479-495. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 2590 p. 479-495
  • Rhoades, D.A.; Dowrick, D.J.; Wilson, C.J.N. 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand : scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo Volcano, Natural Hazards 26: p. 147-174. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 2486 p. 147-174
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 2001. Model of long-term seismogenesis, Annali di Geofisica 44(1): p. 81-93. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 2198 p. 81-93
  • Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H. 2001. Joint hazard of earthquake shaking at two or more locations, Earthquake Spectra 17(4): p. 697-710. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 2369 p. 697-710
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 1999. The precursory earthquake swarm in Japan : hypothesis test, Earth, Planets and Space 51: p. 1267-1277. [s.l.]: [s.n.]. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 1722 p. 1267-1277
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 1998. Long-term seismogenic process for major earthquakes in subduction zones, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 108(3): p. 185-199. DOI: 10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00104-6. [s.l.]: [s.n.]. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 1295 p. 185-199
  • Evison, F.F.; Rhoades, D.A. 1997. The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand : hypothesis tests II, New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 40(4): p. 537-547. [s.l.]: [s.n.]. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 1083 p. 537-547
  • Rhoades, D.A. 1997. Estimation of attenuation relations for strong-motion data allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 87(6): p. 1674-1678. [s.l.]: [s.n.]. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences contribution 1145 p. 1674-1678
  • Rhoades, D.A. 1995. Estimation of the Gutenberg - Richter relation allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties, Tectonophysics 258 (1/4): p. 71-83. DOI: 10.1016/0040-1951(95)00182-4. [s.l.]: [s.n.]. Industrial Research Limited Paper 454 p. 71-83

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