Canterbury Time-dependent Seismic Hazard Model: Earthquake Rate Model and Forecast

Database

This model estimates the amount of earthquake shaking in the Canterbury region for the next 50 years. Here, you can download the earthquake rate model and the combined forecast for 50 years here.

Overview

The earthquake rate model are based on the model explained in Gerstenberger et al. (2014)(external link)

The model contains 50 one-year earthquake rate forecasts for each year between 2015 and 2064 and a combined forecast for 50 years. This file was updated using earthquakes as of 01/01/15. The format is:

  • Column 1: Longitude (decimal)
  • Column 2: Latitude (decimal)
  • Column 3: Centre Moment Magnitude in each 0.1Mw magnitude bin. E.g., 5.0 indicates a magnitude bin of 4.95-5.04
  • Column 4: Number of Mw events within each magnitude bin

The year for the forecast is indicated in the file name and the forecast covers Jan 1st to December 31st of each year.

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