RCETRapid Characterisation of Earthquakes and Tsunami

To achieve these aims

• We use artificial intelligence (i.e. machine learning) to create rapid tsunami forecasts
• We create new data processing techniques that use both seismic and ocean observation data
• We work with a team of educators to create a variety of resources, including a Youth Hub, lesson plans for teachers and community events
• We work with communities in Northland to incorporate traditional knowledge and to increase resilience to natural hazards, especially earthquakes and tsunami

Rapidly characterising earthquakes and tsunami

This programme aims to solve problems of accuracy and speed of tsunami warning delivery. We will develop and adapt a suite of state-of-the-art post-processing techniques, resulting in four-dimensional monitoring of developing earthquakes/tsunami in near real-time. This includes developing geophysical approaches optimised for New Zealand that are based on recent advances in collecting and processing of seismic, geodetic and ocean elevation data, including: 

• Regional inversion for earthquake magnitude and mechanism (e.g. W-phase approach elastrogravity inversion)
• Mapping of spatial and temporal dynamics of earthquake rupture (e.g. back-projection of seismic data in a region extending from terrestrial New Zealand to the Tonga-Kermadec Trench)
• Inversion of seismic and DART data for tsunami source and impact models, including inundation early warning
• Artificial intelligence/machine learning approaches to use geodetic, seismic and DART data to rapidly detect events and predict their impacts

The highest performing algorithms will be implemented for operational use in close collaboration with GeoNet. Scientific advances based on real-time analysis will be delivered to central government, the private sector, and the public through formats proven to be successful in the New Zealand and international communities (e.g. USGS National Earthquake information center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, GeoNet).

Community engagement

In partnership with Ngātiwai Education, mātauranga Māori will be woven through the design/geometry of a Northland seismic array. Our engagement with Northland communities underpins Māori and youth engagement with STEM, leveraging the existing education frameworks developed under the University of Auckland Rū programme. STEM curricula will be jointly developed with local teachers to enable secondary school students to participate in network servicing and data management, promoting local end-to-end involvement in the monitoring platform.

By training and supporting students to participate in our research and help disseminate newly gained knowledge to regional communities, our programme supports long-term community development, inspires young New Zealanders to undertake careers in science, and develops stronger ties between Māori, wider communities, and science.

Expected outcomes

The immediate impact of our research is that New Zealand will be better prepared to respond to and recover from major earthquakes and tsunami in NZ and the southwest Pacific. Our research will deliver more timely and accurate scientific advice through 24/7 NGMC to central/local government CDEM agencies and key infrastructure providers in the immediate aftermath.

Our science will add value to investment in ocean and on-land monitoring networks to improve tsunami resilience in both New Zealand and our Pacific neighbours. Pacific partners will be better prepared for regional tsunami and enabled to act on regional forecasts supported by programme outcomes and ongoing collaborations (UNESCO-IOC).

Through local community and student engagement, Māori partners and the Northland community will have greater awareness and preparedness for earthquake and tsunami events. We also hope our engagement will lead to an increased number of Māori youth considering STEM careers.